Previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update FRAX.

A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD). METHODS: We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted ß-coefficients. RESULTS: A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination. CONCLUSION: A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.

Risk of severe COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases treated with immunosuppressive therapy in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRDs) treated with immunosuppressive drugs. METHOD: A list of 4633 patients on targeted - biological or targeted synthetic - DMARDs in March 2020 was linked to a case-control study that includes all cases of COVID-19 in Scotland. RESULTS: By 22 November 2021, 433 of the 4633 patients treated with targeted DMARDS had been diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 58 had been hospitalized. With all those in the population not on DMARDs as the reference category, the rate ratio for hospitalized COVID-19 associated with DMARD treatment was 2.14 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-2.26] in those on conventional synthetic (cs) DMARDs, 2.01 (95% CI 1.38-2.91) in those on tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors as the only targeted agent, and 3.83 (95% CI 2.65-5.56) in those on other targeted DMARDs. Among those on csDMARDs, rate ratios for hospitalized COVID-19 were lowest at 1.66 (95% CI 1.51-1.82) in those on methotrexate and highest at 5.4 (95% CI 4.4-6.7) in those on glucocorticoids at an average dose > 10 mg/day prednisolone equivalent. CONCLUSION: The risk of hospitalized COVID-19 is elevated in IRD patients treated with immunosuppressive drugs compared with the general population. Of these drugs, methotrexate, hydroxychloroquine, and TNF inhibitors carry the lowest risk. The highest risk is associated with prednisolone. A larger study is needed to estimate reliably the risks associated with each class of targeted DMARD.

Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan.

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. INTRODUCTION: The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors. METHODS: A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible. RESULTS: Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed. CONCLUSIONS: These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266)).

Introducing mobile fracture prevention services with DXA in Northern Scotland: a comparative study of three rural communities.

Mobile fracture prevention services, with DXA, significantly improved access to care for those at high risk of fracture living in rural areas. Introduction of mobile services facilitated access to fracture liaison services and development of integrated of care pathways across community- and secondary-based care. INTRODUCTION: The ageing population is growing faster in rural areas, yet most fracture prevention services are located in urban areas. As part of a wider study, evaluating the introduction of mobile fracture prevention services, we focus on whether mobile services improve access to care for those at highest risk of fracture. METHODS: Services outcomes were assessed against the Royal Osteoporosis Society clinical standards for fracture liaison services. This included standardised, age-specific referral rates, FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic and hip fracture of referrals, pre- and post-introduction of the mobile service across two island and one rural mainland sites. This was compared with referrals from a similar rural mainland region with local access to a comprehensive service. RESULTS: Greatest impact occurred in areas with most limited service provision at baseline. Mean age of patients referred increased from 59 to 68 years (CI 6.8-10.1, p < 0.001). Referral rates increased from 2.8 to 5.4 per 1000 population between 2011 and 2018, with a 5-fold rise in those ≥ 75 years (0.4 to 2.0 per 1000). Mean FRAX 10-year risk of major osteoporotic fracture increased from 12.7 to 17.7% (CI 3.2-5.7, p < 0.001). Mean hip fracture risk probability increased from 3.0 to 5.7% (CI 2.0-3.4, p < 0.001). However, referral rates from the mobile sites remained lower than the comparator site. CONCLUSIONS: Mobile fracture prevention services, including DXA, greatly improved uptake amongst high-risk individuals. Mobile services facilitated development of integrated of care pathways, including fracture liaison services, across community- and secondary-based care.

Shaping the future of our training.

The Shape of Training Review proposed fundamental changes to the nature and delivery of medical training in the UK. In part this is to respond to the increasing care needs of our ageing population and importantly to address problems within the current system of medical training. Concerns have been raised by trainees over the process and outcome of the Review, and the RCPE's Trainees & Members' Committee has worked to ensure that the views and experiences of medical trainees from across the UK have been represented. This Perspective provides an overview of the proposals, our concerns about the process and a summary of ongoing work to address these issues.